What should we expect from COP29?

Some 40,000 delegates and campaigners from different countries are gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29). The global mega forum is taking place during 11–22 November, 2024.

This crucial summit takes place with humanity now on track for up to 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century – compared to the 1.5-degree goal set under the Paris Agreement.

Following last year’s approval of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28, this year’s COP29 has been dubbed as the ‘Finance COP,’ where countries focus on agreeing new goals for climate finance.

And from carbon markets to new national commitments, there’s plenty on the agenda to look forward to in the next two weeks.

It is widely noted that COP29 is having agenda on (1) New collective quantified goals (NCQGs) for climate finance, (2) Implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund, (3) New nationally determined contributions (NDCs), (4) Clarity on carbon markets (4) Greater transparency for Paris Agreement commitments, and some crucial and contemporary issues.

It is to recall that last year at COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels for the first time ever. But the ‘UAE Consensus’ was less a consensus and more of a watered-down pledge, leaving many advocates disappointed as no promises were made to fully phase out oil, gas and coal.

This outcome was likely shaped by the presence of thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists at the event, which was itself hosted by a petrostate and led by the CEO of a state-owned oil company who openly dismissed the need for a fossil fuel phaseout.

Countries also approved the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund, with USD 702 million in initial pledges.

It is to mention that, at COP15 in 2009, industrialized countries agreed to provide USD 100 billion in annual climate finance to the Global South by 2020. This goal was only achieved in 2022 – two years late.

Now, countries are set to decide and adopt what’s known as a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) – a much more ambitious target to ramp up climate finance for lower-income countries to support a just transition.

Negotiations on the NCQG have made little progress over the last few years. Many sources suggest that the Global South will need at least USD 1 trillion in annual climate finance – several times the current level.

At COP29, countries will need to decide how much climate finance should be provided, which countries should contribute, for how long, through which mechanisms, and whether it’ll include loss and damage. Moreover, ‘loss and damage’ refers to the unavoidable impacts of the climate crisis – those too severe for humans to adapt. It includes both tangible losses, like lives lost and damage to property, and intangible ones, like the loss of biodiversity and cultural heritage.

At COP28, countries approved the creation of what’s now known as the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. The fund has also appointed its first executive director and chosen the Philippines as its host country.

But no new pledges have been made since the initial USD 702 million announced at launch. In comparison, Global South countries are suffering roughly USD 400 billion in losses each year.

Aside from finance for mitigation and loss and damage, Global North countries are on track to double their adaptation finance to lower-income countries between 2019 and 2025, as agreed under the Glasgow Climate Pact signed at COP26.

But, if achieved, that would only amount to USD 38 billion per year – compared to the roughly USD 187–359 billion needed, according to a UN report published this week.

That goes to show how badly adaptation has been underfunded compared to mitigation, which will hopefully be addressed as part of the NCQG negotiations at COP29.

Regarding NDCs, under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to make new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions by next February. Some countries are expected to announce their updated NDCs at COP29.

Last year’s host, the U.A.E., has been the first to unveil its new goals, which include slashing emissions by 47 percent between 2019 and 2035 by ramping up renewable energy, investing in carbon capture and storage, and cleaning up oil and gas production. However, its plans have already come under fire from climate advocates for not including measures to limit fossil fuel production.

Simply by-chance (!), for the second year running, the UN Climate Change Conference is taking place in a petrostate – one that’s planning a major expansion in fossil fuel production in the next few years. Meanwhile, an undercover BBC investigation has exposed the head of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team using his role to try to negotiate oil and gas deals.

On the other hand, analysts say Donald Trump’s election win poses a major blow to global climate actions.

The U.S. president-elect has repeatedly denied the climate crisis and promised to once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term. His administration could even quit the UNFCCC altogether.

If the U.S. does leave the Paris Agreement on Trump’s first day in office, this would take effect within a year – meaning it would not be bound by any climate commitments for the remaining three years of Trump’s term and potentially beyond.

That in turn reduces the chances of a climate finance deal being agreed at COP29 as other countries, such as China and the Gulf states, are unlikely to want to chip in without the U.S.’s involvement.

Two more issues on the agenda at COP29 are carbon markets and transparency.

Negotiators at COP28 failed to agree on rules for carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which allows countries to buy carbon credits to meet their climate goals.

The use of carbon credits and offsets has been highly controversial from the offset, which is why delegates will be keen to agree on how they will be governed at the international level.

Countries will also be required to start issuing their first biennial transparency reports (BTRs) under the Paris Agreement by the end of the year.

These track each country’s progress towards its NDCs and adaptation plans, as well as the climate impacts it’s experiencing and all climate financing received, provided or needed.

So far, only 16 countries have submitted their first BTRs, with more are expected during COP29 to give a better idea of how much finance is still needed.

Therefore, expectations form COP29 has been deviated as this was considered sometime back as some global political scenario also going to reshape. (By Purna N. Ranjitakr / agencies)