Political analysts here have predicted a hung parliament and lack of political stability after the results of the Parliamentary and Provincial Assembly are out. There are two major political alliances in the battle field of election having made electoral adjustments in different constituencies, namely, the Nepali Congress led Democratic and Leftist alliances and CPN-UML led Leftist and pro-Hindu-pro-Monarchy alliances.
Nepali Congress led ruling alliances include CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist and Madhes based Loktantrik Samajwadi Party while UML led alliances include pro-Hindu Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Madhes based Janata Samajwadi Party.
Political observers closely watching the Nov. 20 elections predict that Ruling alliances led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba will become victorious in the Parliamentary elections with Nepali Congress emerging as the single largest party. K.P.Oli led CPN-UML will emerge as the second largest party though the alliance he is leading is unlikely to get major share in the new Parliament, they argue.
Nepalese people have been witnessing new political parties and more and more independent candidates this time as established political parties have failed to deliver things and fulfill their promises made before the people. Thus, people are lured by independent candidates and candidates from lesser known parties, who have posed tough challenge to some of the heavy weights from larger political parties.
“As things start moving now, one of the two pre-poll alliances, is likely to emerge as largest group after the election. However, the government to be formed by these groups is unlikely to provide political stability that Nepal badly needs,” pointed out senior journalist and political analyst Dhruba Adhikay.
“So far as foreign policy is concerned, Nepal’s political geography requires incoming government to continue to have balanced relationship with both of our immediate neighbours,” he opined adding “Chances of major changes in existing policy priorities are minimal.”
“There is less enthusiasm in people regarding the election, though political activists are busy campaigning to draw people’s attention,” said Rajesh Ahiraj political analyst closing watching the Madhes politics in Nepal.
“Intellectuals opine that the elections may produce a strong government but it will make the country weaker,” he pointed out. “The much needed peace and political stability are far away even after the election.”
Madhes based political parties such as Janata Samajwadi Party led by Upendra Yadav and Loktantrik Samajwadi Party led by Mahantha Thakur both are not likely to gain much in the upcoming election, he argued. “Among the two key Madhesi parties comparatively speaking JSP will be in a better position after the election,” he said. “People in the Madhes region are silent; they have not come up openly this time.” Majority of the voters are familiar about the character of their leaders and weaknesses of political parties, through different social media sites. Thus, the election result will be very much unexpected this time,” he pointed out.
No party is likely to get majority in the election and it will take them longer time to form a new government and even after formation of the government through negotiations, stability is far away, he added.
Now a days, political parties have shown the tendency of capturing power by any means, without paying much attention to the condition of peasants, labourers and other marginalized people, opined former Speaker of the House of Representatives Daman Nath Dhungana.
“Nepal’s relations with neighboring country largely depends upon how the new government will be formed and who will lead it,” he pointed out.”If the present ruling alliance continues it will have certain priories regarding the foreign policy and if the UML led alliance emerges victorious it will have another priorities,” he argued adding “some time ago, the UML led government was working towards establishing a Xi Jinping school in Nepal.”
“The Nepali Congress and the Maoists are united just for power, though they have totally different ideologies. Neither foreign policy nor economic policy of the two parties match. Therefore, I fear that the new government will not be able to pursue a foreign policy that is suitable for Nepal.”
“In the past, our relations with India had much more importance and in a way India has monopoly to have leverage over Nepal, but now the monopoly has ended with world power China becoming active in regional affairs,” Dhungana said. “Super power country USA has also come in the scenario and in this situation we should have a balanced and effective foreign policy so that we can make our friendly relations with India, China and USA more beneficial to the country and the people.” Though India and China both are equally important for us, India is much closer due to cultural and religious proximity and economic integrity, he argued. We need to attract more foreign investment by using economic diplomacy to make the country economically prosperous.